World Cup 2026 Underdogs: Teams That Could Surprise

Every World Cup is remembered as much for its gatecrashers as its champions. The 2026 edition, the first with 48 teams, may produce more surprises than any before it - and there is a structural reason why.

Why the format favours the bold

With 12 groups of four, the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout round. That safety net means a side can drop points, finish third, and still reach the last 32. For nations that traditionally start slowly or sit in tough groups, the margin for error is far wider than in the old 32-team setup. Underdogs no longer have to be near-perfect to survive the first week.

The dark horses to watch

Morocco are the obvious headline act. Semi-finalists in 2022, the Atlas Lions remain stocked with elite talent led by Achraf Hakimi, even after a turbulent coaching change to Mohamed Ouahbi. We break down their prospects in full in Can Morocco repeat their run?. Drawn in Group C with Brazil, they will fancy second place and a deep run.

Croatia simply refuse to fade. Zlatko Dalic's side reached the 2018 final and the 2022 semis, and while the golden generation around Luka Modric is ageing, their tournament craft and game management make them a nightmare in knockout football.

Uruguay under Marcelo Bielsa are perhaps the most intriguing outsider. Bielsa's high-octane pressing has revitalised a squad mixing the experience of Federico Valverde and Ronald Araujo with the firepower of Darwin Nunez. On their day they can trouble anyone.

Ecuador, coached by Sebastian Beccacece, are young, athletic and defensively organised - exactly the profile that thrives when the format rewards staying in the fight. Senegal, AFCON champions under Pape Thiaw and built around Sadio Mane and a powerful spine, are arguably too good to be called true underdogs, yet their pre-tournament travel saga has kept them under the radar.

Don't overlook others either: a Colombia side full of flair, a physical Ivory Coast that beat France in a June warm-up, and an organised Switzerland could all spring a shock.

The takeaway

The contenders we rank in our winner prediction still hold the edge in depth, but the expanded format hands the brave a real route to the latter stages. If you are filling in the bracket, leave room for at least one name nobody expected.

Sources

• Yahoo Sports, "Who Are The Favourites And Dark Horses Heading Into The 2026 World Cup?" - https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/favourites-dark-horses-heading-2026-185500118.html
• Al Jazeera, "Senegal's World Cup 2026 team preview" - https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/5/30/senegals-world-cup-2026-team-preview-players-to-watch-group-squad-list
• FIFA, "Mohamed Ouahbi replaces Walid Regragui as Morocco coach" - https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/mohamed-ouahbi-replaces-walid-regragui-morocco

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