Senegal and Iraq go head-to-head on Friday in a dead-end Group I clash that will decide little except pride and momentum heading into the knockout stages. Both sides arrived in North America with high hopes but depart with only disappointment after back-to-back losses. Senegal’s 3-0 defeat to France in their opener was followed by a 2-0 reverse against Uruguay, while Iraq’s campaign opened with a 2-0 loss to England and a 4-0 thrashing by Japan. With zero points apiece, a draw would still leave both teams bottom of the group, while a win offers only a consolation prize as they watch others progress.
A tournament to forget
Senegal’s defence of their 2022 World Cup Round of 16 appearance has collapsed before the knockout stages even begin. The Teranga Lions shipped three goals to France without reply, then managed just two shots on target against Uruguay as Nicolás de la Cruz and Darwin Núñez punished their disjointed backline. Coach Aliou Cissé has faced criticism over selections and tactics, with veteran goalkeeper Édouard Mendy enduring scrutiny after a string of errors in qualifying and the opening matches. The squad remains talented on paper—captained by Sadio Mané, marshalled by Kalidou Koulibaly, and containing Ismaila Sarr’s direct threat—but cohesion and sharpness have been missing Senegal’s World Cup 2026 squad profile.
Iraq, meanwhile, have looked overwhelmed against superior opposition. Their midfield has struggled to retain possession against pressing teams, while their defence has repeatedly been stretched beyond breaking point. Coach Jesús Casas has rotated aggressively, but the personnel have rarely looked comfortable in possession or compact without it Iraq’s World Cup 2026 squad profile. A first-half collapse against Japan left their goal difference at -6, the worst in the competition so far.
## Team news and selection headaches
Senegal face a raft of fitness concerns ahead of the finale. Midfielder Pape Matar Sarr (hamstring) missed training on Wednesday and is rated as doubtful, while right-back Fodé Ballo-Touré (groin) is also in doubt after limited involvement late in the session Senegal squad updates, Le Quotidien Sportif, 25 June 2026. Centre-backs Koulibaly and Abdou Diallo are expected to start despite minor knocks, with Sarr’s absence likely to prompt a reshuffle in midfield that could elevate youngster Lamine Camara into a double pivot alongside Nampalys Mendy.
Iraq’s biggest doubt surrounds striker Aymen Hussein, who limped off during Tuesday’s training after aggravating a calf strain. He has not trained fully since the Japan defeat and is rated as a major doubt, with coach Casas indicating he may opt for the experienced Emad Mohsin instead if Hussein cannot recover Iraq training update, Al-Rasheed, 25 June 2026. Midfielder Amjad Attwan remains suspended after picking up a second yellow card in the Japan game, leaving Casas to reshuffle his three-man midfield pivot.
## Predicted lineups
Senegal (4-3-3, predicted):
- GK: Édouard Mendy
- RB: Ismail Jakobs
- CB: Kalidou Koulibaly (c)
- CB: Abdou Diallo
- LB: Fodé Ballo-Touré
- CM: Nampalys Mendy
- CM: Lamine Camara
- CM: Iliman Ndiaye
- RW: Ismaila Sarr
- ST: Sadio Mané
- LW: Habib Diallo
Iraq (4-2-3-1, predicted):
- GK: Ahmed Jassim
- RB: Mohammed Al-Baqer
- CB: Ali Adnan
- CB: Humam Tariq
- LB: Zaid Tahseen
- DM: Safaa Hadi
- DM: Osama Rashid
- RW: Zidane Iqbal
- AM: Ahmed Alaa
- LW: Mohanad Ali
- ST: Emad Mohsin
## What’s at stake
Neither side can qualify, but pride remains on the line. Senegal must avoid a third consecutive defeat to prevent a collapse in morale ahead of future tournaments, while Iraq will aim to limit further humiliation and salvage a sliver of belief. A draw would offer both teams a face-saving point, but the optics of failing to win any of three fixtures will linger. Tactically, Senegal must rediscover their defensive structure and midfield control, while Iraq will need to show signs of resilience against a side with far greater individual quality.
## Reader predictions and narrative context
Our readers have leaned towards a Senegal win in early crowd predictions, with 58% backing the Teranga Lions to claim all three points, 27% forecasting a draw, and just 15% siding with Iraq. The consensus reflects Senegal’s superior squad strength on paper, though the narrowness of the margin suggests recognition of their uneven form. Should Sarr or Mané find space behind Iraq’s high line, the game could open up quickly; conversely, if Iraq’s midfield can stifle Senegal’s rhythm, a low-scoring stalemate is plausible. The bookmakers’ implied probabilities align closely with public sentiment, though the draw market sits slightly higher than the crowd prediction, reflecting the caution induced by Senegal’s recent frailties Kickoff XI reader prediction model, 25 June 2026.
## Score prediction
A Senegal victory by the odd goal seems most likely. The Lions’ attacking personnel outweigh Iraq’s defensive frailties, and their set-pieces could prove decisive against a side prone to aerial vulnerability. A 2-0 scoreline feels plausible if Senegal can impose their rhythm early, though a nervy second half might allow Iraq to snatch a consolation. A draw remains the most probable outcome if either side shows early composure, with a 1-1 finish the likeliest scoreline in that scenario.
Kickoff XI is an independent publication and is not affiliated with FIFA.
