On paper it reads as a comfortable Dutch start. Watch how Japan have played for the past three years and the comfort evaporates. Netherlands against Japan on June 13 is the opener most likely to embarrass a European seed.
Japan arrive with the strongest squad in their history, a generation schooled almost entirely in Europe's top leagues, and a recent habit of beating the continent's biggest names.
Japan's golden generation has arrived
The phrase gets overused, but Japan have earned it. Their spine is built on regular starters across the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A — players comfortable in possession, quick in transition, and unintimidated by reputation.
This is a team that has knocked over heavyweight opposition before and treated it as normal. They press in coordinated waves, move the ball at speed, and carry a forward line sharp enough to punish a single defensive lapse. For the Netherlands, this is not a gentle introduction to the tournament.
Japan's ambition has shifted accordingly. The talk inside the camp is no longer about reaching the knockout rounds but about going deep once there.
The Dutch must respect the ball
The Netherlands have the individual quality to win this, but they cannot win it lazily. If they concede the midfield to Japan and try to play through them with raw talent alone, they will find themselves chasing the game.
The Dutch strength is in their structure when it functions — a back line that steps up in unison and a midfield that controls tempo. Against Japan's pressing, the margin for sloppy build-up play is thin. Lose the ball in the wrong area and Japan are gone, three passes into a counter before the recovery run begins.
This is a test of Dutch discipline as much as Dutch ability. The danger is not that Japan are better — they are not, on raw talent — but that they are organised enough to make the Netherlands play at a tempo they would rather avoid.
Why this opener matters
In the 48-team format, the top two plus eight best third-placed teams advance, which lowers the cost of an opening defeat. But the psychological weight of starting against a team this good is real. Win, and the Netherlands set the tone for the group. Lose, and the doubts gather quickly around a side that has not always travelled well at tournaments.
For Japan, the calculus is simpler. They have nothing to lose against a higher-seeded opponent and everything to gain from announcing themselves on day one.
Goal difference adds another layer. With eight third-placed teams advancing on the back of goals, both sides have reason to chase a margin rather than protect a narrow lead — a small incentive that can shape how open the closing stages become.
The verdict
The model leans Netherlands, on the strength of squad depth and tournament experience. But it is the narrowest of leans, and Japan are exactly the kind of opponent that turns a projected win into a scramble.
If the Dutch treat this as a routine opener, Japan's golden generation will make them regret it. Respect the ball, control the midfield, and the Netherlands win. Take Japan lightly, and this becomes the upset of matchday one.
Either way, this is the fixture neutrals should circle. Two sides with genuine attacking quality, a clear stylistic clash, and a result that will tell us far more about Japan's ceiling than any warm-up ever could.
